During the week of 28 March to 03 April 2025, there was a significant decline in militant activity in Pakistan, largely due to the three-day ceasefire declared by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for Eid ul Fitr. The total number of militant attacks dropped sharply from 35 in the previous week to nine, with a corresponding decrease in casualties from 39 fatalities and 39 injuries to seven deaths and 20 injuries. The regions of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and erstwhile FATA saw the most substantial declines in attacks.
Key developments in the militant landscape included:
- TTP’s Eid Message: Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP emir, released an Eid message criticizing Pakistan’s security institutions and calling for an end to military dominance.
- Eid Ceasefire: Despite the TTP’s ceasefire announcement, the Pakistani military continued counterterrorism operations, with the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) visiting troops in conflict zones.
- TTP Expansion: The TTP claimed that two more groups from the Dir region have joined its ranks, bringing the total number of merged groups to over 60.
- Propaganda Activities: The TTP released a new Urdu nasheed album titled “Zarb-e- Khandaq” and a propaganda video leveraging the crackdown on the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) to court Baloch sentiment.
- Religious Tax: The TTP imposed an Islamic tax (Usher) on farmers in southern KP and Punjab, indicating an expansion of its control.
- Controversial Drone Strike: A drone strike in Mardan resulted in civilian casualties, sparking local protests and highlighting the challenges of distinguishing between militants and civilians. In terms of political and economic developments:
- U.S. Tariffs: The U.S. imposed a 29% tariff on Pakistani imports, posing a significant challenge to Pakistan’s textile industry and prompting diplomatic efforts to negotiate a review.
- Electricity Tariffs: Pakistan announced a significant reduction in electricity tariffs following successful negotiations with the IMF.
- Debt Repayment: Pakistan repaid a $1 billion loan to China, reflecting ongoing efforts to manage external debt obligations.
- India-Pakistan Tensions: There was an exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. In Afghanistan, key developments included:
- Weekly security report
- US-Afghan Relations: The U.S. revoked Green Cards of some Afghan immigrants, while the Taliban dismissed U.S. criticism over seized military equipment.
- Regional Diplomacy: Russia offered to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Uzbekistan showed interest in economic engagement with Afghanistan.
- Security and Governance: The Taliban reported an 85% decrease in criminal offenses in Kabul and emphasized a Sharia-based foreign policy.
- Economic Challenges: Afghanistan continues to face an economic crisis, with high unemployment and food insecurity, while projects like CASA-1000 offer potential economic opportunities. Overall, the week saw a mix of declining militant activity, ongoing counterterrorism efforts, significant political and economic developments in Pakistan, and evolving diplomatic, security, and economic challenges in Afghanistan.
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