The withdrawal of United States and NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a turning point not only in Afghanistan’s internal dynamics but also in the security landscape of Pakistan. While the international community’s attention was largely focused on the political transition in Kabul, Pakistan bore the brunt of the unintended consequences—most notably, a dramatic surge in militant violence. Data compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals an alarming pattern of escalating attacks, strongly correlated with the proliferation of advanced weaponry left behind by retreating foreign forces and subsequently acquired by militant groups.
According to PICSS monitoring, Pakistan experienced 187 militant attacks in 2020, a year prior to the U.S. exit. This number jumped to 294 in 2021, the year of the withdrawal. However, the real impact of the security vacuum across the border began to manifest in 2022, when Pakistan recorded 380 attacks—an increase of 29.25% over the previous year. The situation worsened considerably in 2023, with militant attacks surging to 645, marking a 69.74% spike. The year 2024 closed with 908 militant incidents, showing yet another alarming 40.78% increase compared to 2023.
Cumulatively, from 2021 to 2024, Pakistan witnessed a staggering 209% rise in militant attacks. This represents a more than threefold increase in just three years. Correspondingly, the number of fatalities and injuries has also remained disturbingly high. In 2024 alone, 1,157 people were killed in militant violence, while 1,303 were injured. This level of violence is not only the highest recorded in nearly a decade but also suggests a substantial enhancement in the militants’ operational capacity—likely fueled by access to modern arms and tactical equipment left behind by foreign troops in Afghanistan.
The correlation between the post-withdrawal influx of weapons and the rising tide of violence in Pakistan is not merely circumstantial. Reports and ground-level intelligence indicate that groups such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates have benefited from surplus weapons, night vision devices, communication equipment, and armored vehicles that were originally part of the U.S. and NATO inventories. The increased lethality of attacks—demonstrated by higher casualty figures and more frequent use of sophisticated tactics such as vehicle-borne IEDs, coordinated ambushes, and cross-border assaults—further underscores the shift in militant capability.
This trend has serious implications for Pakistan’s national security, internal stability, and counterterrorism posture. It challenges the capacity of law enforcement and security agencies to contain and dismantle well-armed militant networks. Moreover, it necessitates a recalibration of Pakistan’s regional diplomacy, especially in pressing Afghanistan’s de facto authorities to prevent the use of Afghan soil by anti-Pakistan elements.
The findings of PICSS point toward the urgent need for a multi-pronged national response—one that goes beyond kinetic measures. Strengthening border security, enhancing intelligence cooperation, restricting arms trafficking, and increasing diplomatic pressure on the Taliban regime are critical components of such a response. Equally important is the need for institutional reforms and legislative measures that can better equip the Pakistani state to respond to the evolving threat landscape.
While the exit of foreign forces from Afghanistan ended a chapter in global military intervention, it opened a new and more dangerous chapter for Pakistan. The post-withdrawal security fallout must be recognized as a regional crisis, one that demands both international acknowledgment and coordinated action. As Pakistan continues to face the consequences of decisions made beyond its borders, it must also strengthen its internal resolve to protect its citizens, defend its sovereignty, and uphold the rule of law against a resurging tide of militancy.
This article is based on PICSS data collected from January 2020 to December 2024 and is part of our ongoing monitoring of security trends in Pakistan and the wider South Asian region.